Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:34:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd17a…ffca sports 391 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$1,975 (-31%) realized −$2,132 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%165W / 220L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$33
14 days−$3,799
30 days−$2,615
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$887
sports 38% −$1,028
crypto 12% −$194
finance 2% −$63
world 1% +$39
politics 1% −$18
tech 1% +$30
culture 0% −$4
weather 0% −$5
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +9.9% -0.6% 59% 58% +0.3%
≤30d 349 -11.4% -19.8% 39% 39% -55.4%
≤90d 385 -0.9% -10.3% 43% 43% -40.2%
all 385 -0.9% -10.3% 43% 43% -40.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 43% -40.2%
10% -18.9% 42% -45.9%
15% -26.8% 42% -51.1%
20% -33.9% 41% -55.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late -63% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$19 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$2,132
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses165 / 220
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions6
Markets (closed)385 / 391
History coverage43d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 385 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? No 45¢ 46¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? No 24¢ 20¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 59¢ 92¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+56%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Hurricanes 51¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Under 57¢ 34¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +73%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +73%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 177.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$9 +172%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $5 +$2 +32%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 +$8 +152%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $5 +$4 +70%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$5 +90%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 +$4 +76%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 +$4 +73%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $5 +$7 +131%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $5 42m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $5 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 3h
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 41¢ $5 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 47¢ $5 3h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 4h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 4h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 47¢ $5 4h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 4h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 4h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 4h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 4h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 5h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 6h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 6h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 17h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 17h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 18h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 20h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $5 20h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 45¢ $5 21h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 21h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 21h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 75¢ $5 22h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 23h
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Indiana Fever 84¢ $5 24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $5 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 53¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.19 · official $39.19 (match) · 791 history records