Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:58:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D1
0xd17a…4c6f
sports · 53 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$12 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$12 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses37 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage32d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 0 History 53 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? Yes 50¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Athletics 69¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul Alex de Minaur 95¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-05-17? Yes 83¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 57¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Thunder 41¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks San Francisco Giants 92¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets Detroit Tigers 43¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-05-17? Yes 88¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will FK Baltika Kaliningrad vs. FK Dinamo Moskva end in a draw? Yes 97¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs United Arab Emirates Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 20 $5 $0 +1%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 20 $5 $0 +9%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Magdalena Frech vs Leylah Fernandez May 19 $5 $0 +3%
World Championships: Italy vs. Norway May 19 $5 $0 +6%
Bengaluru 3: Dominik Palan vs Kokoro Isomura May 19 $1 $0 +13%
Bengaluru 3: Aradhya Kshitij vs Alastair Gray May 19 $3 $0 +2%
ITF Takasaki: Yufei Ren vs Rina Saigo May 19 $1 −$1 -60%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 19 $1 $0 +19%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 19 $2 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $1 $0 +7%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Katerina Siniakova May 18 $1 $0 +11%
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard May 18 $1 $0 +21%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $1 $0 +19%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 $0 +3%
Will FC Nordsjælland win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 $0 +9%
Will FK Baltika Kaliningrad vs. FK Dinamo Moskva end in a draw? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 −$1 -75%
Will FC Groningen win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 $0 +11%
Will AZ win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 $0 +41%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics May 17 $2 $0 +3%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 17 $1 $0 +8%
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros May 17 $1 $0 +5%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians May 17 $2 −$1 -46%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 16 $1 $0 +11%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $1 $0 +12%
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Oeiras 4: Jaime Faria vs Emilio Nava May 15 $1 $0 +32%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 15 $1 $0 +10%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox May 15 $1 $0 +10%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $1 $0 +14%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. Los Angeles Sparks May 14 $1 +$1 +69%
Zagreb: Luka Mikrut vs Justin Engel May 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $1 $0 +26%
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets May 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 77% −$8
other 20% −$4
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 53m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 90¢ $6 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 80¢ $5 1h
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs United Arab Emirates BUY United Arab Emirates 100¢ $5 15h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $5 19h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 94¢ $5 21h
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul BUY Alex de Minaur 95¢ $5 21d
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Athletics 100¢ $5 23d
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY San Francisco Giants 92¢ $1 23d
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 99¢ $5 23d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $5 23d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 91¢ $5 23d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Magdalena Frech vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 100¢ $5 24d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Magdalena Frech vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 97¢ $5 24d
World Championships: Italy vs. Norway SELL Norway 98¢ $5 24d
World Championships: Italy vs. Norway BUY Norway 92¢ $5 24d
ITF Takasaki: Yufei Ren vs Rina Saigo SELL Yufei Ren 24¢ $0 24d
Bengaluru 3: Aradhya Kshitij vs Alastair Gray BUY Alastair Gray 98¢ $2 24d
Bengaluru 3: Aradhya Kshitij vs Alastair Gray SELL Alastair Gray 95¢ $1 24d
Bengaluru 3: Aradhya Kshitij vs Alastair Gray BUY Alastair Gray 92¢ $1 24d
Bengaluru 3: Dominik Palan vs Kokoro Isomura BUY Dominik Palan 88¢ $1 24d
ITF Takasaki: Yufei Ren vs Rina Saigo BUY Yufei Ren 57¢ $1 24d
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 69¢ $1 24d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres SELL San Diego Padres 93¢ $1 24d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 77¢ $1 24d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL Yes 96¢ $1 24d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 41¢ $2 24d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 55¢ $2 24d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 78¢ $3 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +14.9% +3.9% 100% 50% -0.3%
≤30d 45 -14.1% -22.3% 73% 31% -20.1%
≤90d 53 -16.2% -24.2% 70% 34% -21.4%
all 53 -16.2% -24.2% 70% 34% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 34% -21.4%
10% -31.4% 13% -28.9%
15% -38.1% 9% -35.8%
20% -44.1% 6% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records