Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:50:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D1 0xd17b…aa86 crypto 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$223 (-12%) realized −$217 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate58%89W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$55
14 days−$55
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% −$45
sports 32% +$37
other 28% −$211
finance 7% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -37.5% -43.5% 31% 31% -16.3%
≤30d 13 -37.5% -43.5% 31% 31% -16.3%
≤90d 144 -8.0% -16.8% 59% 27% -19.3%
all 153 -8.5% -17.2% 58% 28% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 28% -22.2%
10% -25.1% 20% -29.6%
15% -32.3% 12% -36.4%
20% -39.0% 6% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$217
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses89 / 64
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage95d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $9 $3 −$6 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Sadio Mané: 2+ shots Jun 16 $12 −$12 -99%
Michael Olise: 3+ shots Jun 16 $32 −$32 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$61 +60%
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 −$3 -30%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $100 +$39 +39%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 −$15 -15%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$16 +16%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $101 −$48 -48%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 06 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Apr 29 $5 −$4 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Apr 29 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Apr 29 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 29 $5 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 29 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 29 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 29 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 29 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 29 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 29 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 29 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Apr 29 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 29 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Apr 29 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 29 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Apr 29 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Apr 29 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 29 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Apr 29 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Apr 29 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Apr 29 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Apr 29 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Apr 29 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Apr 29 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Apr 29 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Apr 29 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Apr 29 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Apr 29 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 28 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Apr 28 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Apr 28 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Apr 28 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Apr 28 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Apr 28 $5 −$2 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 43m
Sadio Mané: 2+ shots BUY Yes 59¢ $12 25h
Michael Olise: 3+ shots BUY Yes 63¢ $32 25h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $112 43h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $19 43h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 43h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 43h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $36 43h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 43h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 43h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 43h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 43h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 43h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $24 43h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $163 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 2d
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals SELL Yes 25¢ $7 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $139 3d
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $10 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $80 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $20 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 33¢ $87 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $116 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 SELL Under 41¢ $52 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 BUY Under 77¢ $101 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.02 · official $3.02 (match) · 377 history records