Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:04:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D1 0xd17b…b6d5 sports 53 markets active 9d ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$785 (+4%) realized +$794 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%30W / 21L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$351per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$17
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$379
other 6% +$433
crypto 0% −$8
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -2.7% -12.0% 67% 50% +20.8%
≤90d 10 -9.2% -17.8% 60% 50% +33.2%
all 51 +2.3% -7.4% 59% 55% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 55% -5.4%
10% -16.3% 47% -14.5%
15% -24.4% 33% -22.7%
20% -31.8% 25% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$624) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$218 vs −$286 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$794
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses30 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage168d
Avg bet$351
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 50¢ 48¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $14 $8 −$6 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $78 +$22 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -57%
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire May 30 $10 +$1 +10%
Little Rock: Fajing Sun vs Jay Dylan Friend May 30 $26 +$24 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $207 +$78 +38%
Celtics vs. Hawks Apr 01 $122 +$106 +87%
Kings vs. Celtics Mar 15 $82 +$18 +22%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Jan 30 $13 +$7 +52%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15? Jan 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Wizards vs. Clippers Jan 15 $810 +$190 +24%
Nuggets vs. Pelicans Jan 14 $1,110 +$440 +40%
Hawks vs. Lakers Jan 14 $220 −$220 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Bucks Jan 14 $530 −$530 -100%
76ers vs. Raptors Jan 13 $624 +$476 +76%
Nets vs. Mavericks Jan 13 $92 +$8 +9%
76ers vs. Raptors Jan 12 $450 +$550 +122%
Knicks vs. Trail Blazers Jan 12 $670 +$330 +49%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-01-10? Jan 11 $110 +$390 +354%
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers Jan 10 $1,000 −$400 -40%
Hobart International, Qualification: Darja Semenistaja vs Moyuka Uchij Jan 10 $175 +$325 +186%
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers Jan 10 $670 −$670 -100%
Bucks vs. Lakers Jan 10 $490 −$490 -100%
Brisbane International: Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk Jan 10 $808 +$192 +24%
Miami vs. Ole Miss Jan 09 $1,158 +$642 +55%
Bulls vs. Pistons Jan 09 $800 +$200 +25%
Nuggets vs. Celtics Jan 07 $76 $0 +0%
Bruins vs. Kraken Jan 07 $530 −$530 -100%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-01-06? Jan 07 $166 +$34 +20%
Warriors vs. Clippers Jan 06 $480 +$520 +108%
Ducks vs. Flyers Jan 06 $420 −$420 -100%
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-01-05? Jan 06 $324 +$576 +178%
Packers vs. Vikings Jan 05 $810 +$190 +24%
Nuggets vs. Nets Jan 05 $126 +$174 +138%
76ers vs. Knicks Jan 04 $86 +$114 +133%
Panthers vs. Buccaneers Jan 03 $210 −$210 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Heat Jan 03 $220 −$220 -100%
Rockets vs. Mavericks Jan 03 $750 −$750 -100%
Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State Jan 03 $198 +$102 +52%
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans Jan 03 $740 +$260 +35%
Spurs vs. Pacers Jan 03 $690 +$301 +44%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-01-02? Jan 02 $240 −$240 -100%
Kings vs. Clippers Dec 31 $780 +$220 +28%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $320 −$320 -100%
Bucks vs. Hornets Dec 29 $420 −$420 -100%
76ers vs. Thunder Dec 29 $352 +$48 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 9d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners $0 11d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners $1 11d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners $1 11d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners $3 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $78 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $0 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 15d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Boston Red Sox 50¢ $51 15d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Boston Red Sox 50¢ $51 15d
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire SELL PortlandFire 27¢ $5 23d
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 25¢ $5 23d
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire SELL PortlandFire 30¢ $6 23d
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 27¢ $5 23d
Little Rock: Fajing Sun vs Jay Dylan Friend BUY Jay Dylan Friend 52¢ $26 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $7 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up $0 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up $0 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up $0 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up $0 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up $0 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up $0 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up $0 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up $0 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up $0 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up $0 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up $0 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up $0 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up $0 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up $0 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.20 · official $105.20 (match) · 166 history records