Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:04:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D1 0xd17e…7a0c crypto 376 markets active 1h ago coverage 239d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 239d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,721 (+1%) realized +$5,683 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%360W / 16L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,287per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,092now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 239d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$617
other 1% −$269
weather 1% +$57
finance 0% $0
sports 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -26.6% -33.6% 55% 0% -30.6%
≤30d 11 -26.6% -33.6% 55% 0% -30.6%
≤90d 11 -26.6% -33.6% 55% 0% -30.6%
all 376 -1.5% -10.9% 96% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 1% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$2,268) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$558 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$1,092
Realized+$5,683
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses360 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)376 / 376
History coverage239d ⚠
Avg bet$1,287
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 376 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 23? No 93¢ 97¢ $605 $630 +$24 (+4%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $400 $419 +$19 (+5%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? Yes 98¢ 87¢ $49 $44 −$5 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - October 16, 10AM ET Jun 23 $930 −$930 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 5AM ET Jun 23 $475 −$475 -100%
Solana Up or Down - July 28, 5AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $149 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 23 $356 +$19 +5%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $138 +$7 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $1,997 $0 +0%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $1,710 −$221 -13%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $1,072 −$56 -5%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 20 $100 +$10 +10%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Feb 15 $996 +$25 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Dec 31 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Dec 31 $44 −$42 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 9PM ET Dec 11 $1,022 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Dec 04 $1,012 +$10 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 8PM ET Dec 01 $591 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Nov 21 $2,627 +$61 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Nov 21 $3,917 −$3,917 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Nov 21 $3,818 +$39 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Nov 21 $3,765 +$45 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Nov 21 $3,011 +$30 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Nov 21 $724 +$7 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Nov 21 $391 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Nov 21 $990 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Nov 21 $3,533 +$188 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Nov 21 $1,894 +$19 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Nov 21 $451 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 8PM ET Nov 21 $3,478 +$32 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Nov 21 $150 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 7PM ET Nov 21 $3,344 +$132 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 6PM ET Nov 20 $2,492 +$23 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Nov 20 $470 +$5 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Nov 20 $479 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Nov 20 $288 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Nov 20 $522 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Nov 20 $1,058 +$11 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 19, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Nov 20 $598 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Nov 20 $3,211 +$47 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Nov 19 $854 +$18 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Nov 16 $178 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Nov 16 $2,873 +$29 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 16, 6AM ET Nov 16 $3,116 +$60 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Nov 16 $2,094 +$29 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Nov 16 $165 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Nov 16 $2,954 +$33 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Nov 16 $291 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Nov 16 $716 +$7 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Nov 16 $216 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Nov 16 $423 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? SELL Yes 95¢ $48 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 23? SELL No 95¢ $68 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? SELL Yes 95¢ $45 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? SELL Yes 95¢ $2 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? SELL Yes 95¢ $226 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? SELL Yes 95¢ $48 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 23? SELL No 95¢ $76 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 23? BUY No 95¢ $29 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 23? BUY No 94¢ $104 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 23? BUY No 94¢ $193 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? BUY Yes 94¢ $15 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 23? SELL No 94¢ $15 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? BUY Yes 94¢ $299 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 23? SELL No 94¢ $28 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? BUY Yes 93¢ $140 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 23? SELL No 94¢ $141 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 23? SELL Up 35¢ $21 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? SELL Yes 93¢ $93 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 23? BUY No 93¢ $140 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? SELL Yes 93¢ $46 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 23? BUY No 93¢ $212 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? SELL Yes 93¢ $16 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? BUY Yes 93¢ $136 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 23? SELL No 93¢ $93 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 23? SELL No 93¢ $25 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 23? BUY No 93¢ $279 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? SELL Yes 93¢ $46 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 23? BUY No 93¢ $28 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,092.31 · official $1,092.31 (match) · 3500 history records