Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:34:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd17f…65d1 sports 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 709d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$91 (+2%) realized +$87 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate63%43W / 25L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$760now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days+$99
14 days+$99
30 days+$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$95
sports 29% −$2
crypto 0% +$6
world 0% −$9
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -1.0% -10.4% 94% 0% -7.3%
≤30d 32 -1.0% -10.4% 94% 0% -7.3%
≤90d 37 -14.3% -22.5% 81% 0% -8.0%
all 68 -8.8% -17.5% 63% 19% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 19% -7.6%
10% -25.4% 19% -16.5%
15% -32.6% 16% -24.6%
20% -39.2% 13% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

709d coverage
Net worth$760
Realized+$87
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses43 / 25
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage709d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 94¢ 95¢ $756 $760 +$4 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nicolas Pépé: 3+ goals Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Séko Fofana: 2+ goals Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $144 +$6 +4%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $49 −$49 -100%
Set 2 Winner: Osaka vs Alexandrova Jun 25 $381 +$20 +5%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $241 +$10 +4%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $240 +$11 +5%
Oh Hyeongyu: 3+ goals Jun 25 $49 +$1 +2%
Yang Hyunjun: 2+ goals Jun 25 $828 +$22 +3%
Gabriel Martinelli: 2+ goals Jun 25 $770 +$30 +4%
Zakaria El Ouahdi: 5+ shots Jun 25 $49 +$1 +1%
Esmir Bajraktarević: 5+ shots Jun 24 $48 +$2 +5%
Ruben Vargas: 2+ assists Jun 24 $49 +$1 +3%
Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals Jun 24 $48 +$2 +4%
Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals Jun 24 $722 +$28 +4%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $50 +$1 +2%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 24 $19 +$1 +3%
James Rodríguez: 2+ assists Jun 24 $19 +$1 +6%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $31 +$1 +3%
Spread: Colombia (-4.5) Jun 24 $36 +$1 +2%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5 Jun 24 $19 +$1 +4%
Fares Chaïbi: 2+ assists Jun 24 $19 +$1 +6%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 Jun 24 $19 +$1 +5%
Amine Gouiri: 2+ assists Jun 24 $19 +$1 +5%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5 Jun 24 $27 +$1 +2%
Gaubas vs. Mmoh: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) Jun 22 $23 +$1 +4%
Set 1 Winner: Clarke vs Pellegrino Jun 22 $19 +$1 +4%
Set 2 Winner: Ouden vs Zhou Jun 22 $19 +$1 +7%
Set 1 Winner: Virtanen vs Martinez Jun 22 $19 +$1 +5%
Set 2 Winner: Boyer vs Olivieri Jun 22 $20 +$1 +4%
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 2? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) Apr 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO1) Apr 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 11AM ET Mar 06 $4 +$4 +95%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 11 $3 +$1 +39%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 11 $9 +$3 +37%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs M80 (BO3) Dec 02 $7 +$10 +144%
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump eliminate H-1B visa in first 100 days? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
X allowed to operate in China before May? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MicroStrategy hold 550k+ BTC before May? May 22 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? Apr 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada federal election in 2024? Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Nicolas Pépé: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $50 8h
Séko Fofana: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $50 8h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner BUY ECHO 96¢ $48 8h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner BUY ECHO 96¢ $48 8h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner BUY ECHO 96¢ $48 8h
Set 2 Winner: Osaka vs Alexandrova BUY Osaka 98¢ $50 13h
Set 2 Winner: Osaka vs Alexandrova BUY Osaka 95¢ $48 13h
Set 2 Winner: Osaka vs Alexandrova BUY Osaka 95¢ $48 13h
Set 2 Winner: Osaka vs Alexandrova BUY Osaka 95¢ $48 13h
Set 2 Winner: Osaka vs Alexandrova BUY Osaka 95¢ $48 13h
Set 2 Winner: Osaka vs Alexandrova BUY Osaka 94¢ $47 13h
Set 2 Winner: Osaka vs Alexandrova BUY Osaka 92¢ $46 13h
Set 2 Winner: Osaka vs Alexandrova BUY Osaka 96¢ $48 13h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 99¢ $21 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $759.60 · official $759.60 (match) · 219 history records