Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:53:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd181…6a2b sports 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$36 (-15%) realized −$18 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -5.4% -14.4% 62% 38% -23.8%
≤30d 8 -5.4% -14.4% 62% 38% -23.8%
≤90d 8 -5.4% -14.4% 62% 38% -23.8%
all 8 -5.4% -14.4% 62% 38% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 38% -23.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 38% -31.1%
15% -30.1% 25% -37.8%
20% -36.9% 12% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$16 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner FURIA 62¢ 58¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-6%)
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Zero Tenacity 65¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $45 +$2 +4%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $50 +$5 +10%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $23 −$23 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $17 +$6 +36%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $30 −$25 -82%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $15 −$1 -7%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $6 +$4 +67%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $5 +$1 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 62¢ $28 13m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 99¢ $28 14m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 63¢ $18 43m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 36¢ $19 44m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $27 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $26 1h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 65¢ $16 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 77¢ $20 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 69¢ $0 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 66¢ $29 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 67¢ $30 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY 4ikibamboni 42¢ $23 2h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $23 3h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 73¢ $17 4h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FOKUS 15¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL LPH Gaming 100¢ $9 4h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FOKUS 81¢ $30 4h
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY LPH Gaming 58¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL LPH Gaming 33¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY LPH Gaming 61¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FOKUS 100¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FOKUS 59¢ $6 5h
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL MASQ 100¢ $6 5h
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY MASQ 77¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.43 · official $26.43 (match) · 24 history records