Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:39:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd184…1ee6 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate58%22W / 16L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$3
other 26% −$3
politics 11% +$1
economics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 +3.7% -6.2% 25% 8% -9.3%
≤90d 12 +3.7% -6.2% 25% 8% -9.3%
all 38 +0.7% -8.9% 58% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 3% -9.3%
10% -17.6% 3% -18.0%
15% -25.6% 3% -25.9%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses22 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage446d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $54 $54 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $59 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $65 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $54 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $42 +$2 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $3 +$1 +42%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $57 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $57 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 22 $46 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $53 $0 -0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Dec 14 $9 $0 +3%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Dec 04 $6 $0 +8%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $14 $0 +1%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 11 $13 $0 +0%
Starmer out before July? Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 04 $1 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 04 $13 $0 +3%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $13 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Apr 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times April 11–18? Apr 16 $14 $0 +1%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 13 $16 −$2 -11%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? Apr 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? Apr 07 $22 $0 +1%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $3 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 03 $1 $0 -36%
Will Domantas Sabonis lead the NBA in Rebounds? Mar 31 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on March 31? Mar 31 $2 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $59 8h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $59 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $29 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $29 25h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $1 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $58 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $59 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $34 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $20 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 91¢ $54 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $44 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $42 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 5¢ $3 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 5¢ $1 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $3 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 1¢ $2 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 1¢ $2 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $57 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $57 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $23 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $34 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $57 25d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 26d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $46 28d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $46 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.55 · official $53.55 (match) · 106 history records