Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:09:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D1 0xd186…ed6e sports 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$165 (-1%) realized −$260 · open +$95
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate52%67W / 63L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$144est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$499now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$79
14 days+$85
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$717
other 17% +$323
world 8% +$106
politics 5% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -28.8% -35.5% 56% 0% -13.4%
≤30d 36 +17.9% +6.7% 56% 28% -8.6%
≤90d 114 -8.3% -17.1% 50% 32% -10.7%
all 130 -3.0% -12.2% 52% 34% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 34% -11.4%
10% -20.6% 29% -19.9%
15% -28.3% 24% -27.6%
20% -35.3% 22% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$79 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$499
Realized−$260
Unrealized+$95
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses67 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$144
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage106d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 100¢ $404 $499 +$95 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals Jun 29 $120 +$12 +10%
Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals Jun 29 $579 +$21 +4%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $23 −$13 -57%
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 29 $290 −$85 -29%
Will England be the highest-scoring team in Group L during the Group S Jun 28 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Croatia be the highest-scoring team in Group L during the Group S Jun 28 $636 +$33 +5%
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka Jun 27 $120 +$5 +4%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $27 −$27 -97%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $27 −$26 -97%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $148 −$147 -99%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua Jun 20 $136 +$18 +13%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $989 +$11 +1%
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary Jun 19 $875 +$24 +3%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Xi Luo Jun 18 $225 +$73 +32%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $199 +$186 +93%
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $55 +$245 +442%
Will The MongolZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $112 +$294 +262%
Will B8 qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $67 +$433 +650%
Will Aurora qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 08 $156 −$153 -98%
Will MIBR qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $138 +$122 +89%
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Ding Cuts - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $319 −$11 -3%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 08 $179 −$9 -5%
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Ding Cuts - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $305 −$10 -3%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 07 $370 +$360 +97%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $396 −$396 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) Jun 07 $135 −$135 -100%
LoL: GIANTX iTero vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - LES Regular Season Jun 07 $160 −$160 -100%
Valorant: LOUD vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha Jun 07 $219 −$219 -100%
Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Shifters (+1.5) Jun 07 $230 −$230 -100%
Will LOS win CBLOL 2026 Split 1? Jun 06 $480 +$85 +18%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-3.5) vs MIBR (+3.5) Jun 06 $17 $0 +2%
Game Handicap: JDG (-2.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+2.5) Jun 06 $99 +$1 +1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: GamerLegion (-3.5) vs Astralis (+3.5) Jun 06 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $254 −$250 -98%
ITF Cuiaba: Ryan Augusto Dos Santos vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 03 $206 +$41 +20%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 01 $68 −$6 -9%
Valorant: QoR vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stag May 26 $448 +$161 +36%
Geneva Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Casper Ruud May 19 $770 +$348 +45%
Set Handicap: Collignon (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) May 18 $10 −$1 -10%
LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs Dark Passage (BO3) - TCL Regular Season May 05 $179 +$117 +66%
Game 3: Any Player Quadra Kill? May 04 $15 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 03 $570 +$138 +24%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Season May 02 $163 +$172 +105%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO3) - LCP Re Apr 26 $154 −$154 -100%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Apr 26 $119 −$109 -92%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? Apr 26 $15 +$9 +57%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs KOLESIE (BO3) - LORGAR RANKINGS Playoffs Apr 26 $136 −$136 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 2? Apr 25 $23 +$1 +4%
Madrid Open: Janice Tjen vs Maria Sakkari Apr 22 $425 −$14 -3%
Counter-Strike: eLITenergy vs aimclub (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers S Apr 20 $111 −$111 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals BUY No 91¢ $120 1h
Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $579 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $13 5h
Will England be the highest-scoring team in Group L during the Group S BUY Yes 95¢ $19 2d
Will Croatia be the highest-scoring team in Group L during the Group S BUY No 95¢ $636 2d
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka SELL Naomi Osaka 88¢ $0 2d
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka SELL Naomi Osaka 88¢ $125 2d
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 85¢ $2 2d
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 70¢ $290 2d
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 84¢ $118 2d
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 2 Winner BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria $27 5d
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 1 Winner BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria $27 5d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 100 Thieves 55¢ $10 9d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua SELL ECHO 33¢ $154 9d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 100 Thieves 55¢ $5 9d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 100 Thieves 55¢ $3 9d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 100 Thieves 55¢ $6 9d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 100 Thieves 55¢ $3 9d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 100 Thieves 55¢ $5 9d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 100 Thieves 55¢ $116 9d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua BUY ECHO 28¢ $45 9d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua BUY ECHO 28¢ $91 9d
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary SELL No 100¢ $899 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $404 11d
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Xi Luo BUY Daria Khomutsianskaya 75¢ $29 12d
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Xi Luo BUY Daria Khomutsianskaya 75¢ $195 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $989 12d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 51¢ $199 13d
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY No 18¢ $55 19d
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary BUY No 97¢ $778 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $499.24 · official $499.24 (match) · 392 history records