Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:05:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D1 0xd186…44d1 sports 27 markets active 2d ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-3%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$119
7 days+$53
14 days+$54
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$169
sports 33% −$35
world 28% −$215
finance 2% −$7
crypto 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +4.8% -5.2% 50% 50% -3.2%
≤30d 16 +8.3% -2.0% 50% 50% -3.9%
≤90d 16 +8.3% -2.0% 50% 50% -3.9%
all 27 -10.0% -18.5% 44% 41% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 41% -16.5%
10% -26.3% 41% -24.4%
15% -33.5% 33% -31.7%
20% -40.0% 30% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$26 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage112d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $105 +$54 +51%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 19 $21 +$16 +76%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $53 +$49 +93%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $42 −$39 -92%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 +$13 +64%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $53 −$42 -80%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $105 −$12 -11%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$6 -26%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $105 +$73 +70%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $158 −$60 -38%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $53 +$27 +51%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 +$21 +97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 −$15 -70%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 +$31 +149%
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026? Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B Mar 19 $24 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 26? Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner Mar 19 $28 +$10 +35%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP - Map 2 Winner Mar 19 $20 +$10 +49%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 19 $17 +$4 +26%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 17 $20 −$7 -35%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 15 $2 $0 -5%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $10 −$9 -86%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $99 −$95 -96%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $50 −$46 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $21 44h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes $3 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $21 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $53 3d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $93 3d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $105 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $53 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $16 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $105 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $99 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $53 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $105 6d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $105 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $53 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $21 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 8d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A BUY FaZe 64¢ $36 92d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 74¢ $28 92d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP - Map 2 Winner SELL NIP 100¢ $30 92d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B BUY NIP 47¢ $4 92d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP - Map 2 Winner BUY NIP 67¢ $20 92d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B SELL PARIVISION 78¢ $24 92d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B BUY PARIVISION 64¢ $20 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records