Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:46:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd187…11ce crypto 277 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$207 (-5%) realized −$201 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate16%44W / 226L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$209
7 days−$258
14 days−$257
30 days−$259
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$242
crypto 20% −$9
other 20% −$11
politics 12% −$5
world 11% −$28
finance 9% −$3
economics 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -6.8% -15.7% 23% 4% -25.0%
≤30d 76 -4.7% -13.8% 21% 5% -23.7%
≤90d 270 -3.5% -12.7% 16% 1% -16.3%
all 270 -3.5% -12.7% 16% 1% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 1% -16.3%
10% -21.0% 1% -24.3%
15% -28.7% 1% -31.6%
20% -35.7% 1% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$252
Realized−$201
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses44 / 226
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions7
Markets (closed)270 / 277
History coverage66d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 270 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Under 86¢ 85¢ $49 $49 −$1 (-1%)
South Africa leading at halftime? No 85¢ 84¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the World Cup? No 93¢ 88¢ $45 $43 −$2 (-5%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 86¢ 78¢ $38 $35 −$4 (-10%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will South Korea reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 88¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 24? No 90¢ 83¢ $9 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $72 −$52 -73%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 21 $42 −$1 -3%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 21 $9 $0 -2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 21 $13 $0 -2%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Jun 21 $48 −$1 -1%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 21 $6 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Mexico? Jun 20 $10 $0 -2%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $138 +$83 +60%
Curaçao to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 20 $10 $0 -2%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $87 −$58 -66%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $138 −$75 -54%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 20 $22 $0 -2%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 20 $10 $0 -2%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $82 −$43 -53%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $50 −$1 -2%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $72 −$58 -80%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $113 −$64 -57%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $13 −$9 -64%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 18 $31 −$1 -5%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 +$50 +244%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 18 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 18 $10 $0 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 18 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 -3%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -63%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 $0 -2%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 18 $9 $0 +2%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $31 −$25 -81%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 17 $12 +$1 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $15 +$2 +10%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 -9%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 17 $26 +$1 +5%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $35 +$1 +4%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $45 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 17 $49 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? Jun 16 $20 $0 -2%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $9 $0 -2%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 16 $6 $0 +8%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $7 −$2 -24%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Jun 08 $5 $0 -5%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 07 $3 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa leading at halftime? BUY No 85¢ $49 24m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $19 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 89¢ $10 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $72 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 90¢ $10 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $25 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 89¢ $10 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 90¢ $10 5h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $50 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 87¢ $48 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 89¢ $21 5h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL Yes 87¢ $8 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL No 80¢ $30 5h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL No 86¢ $12 5h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? SELL No 85¢ $48 5h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Ecuador 87¢ $6 5h
Will South Korea reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $7 5h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Mexico? SELL No 86¢ $10 7h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $221 8h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Mexico? BUY No 87¢ $10 8h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 88¢ $9 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 91¢ $22 9h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $138 9h
Curaçao to score first vs. Ecuador? SELL No 88¢ $10 9h
Curaçao to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY No 89¢ $10 11h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $13 11h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $29 12h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $87 12h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $31 18h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $50 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.84 · official $251.10 (match) · 905 history records