Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:34:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd188…8dc2 other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$173 (+9%) realized +$257 · open −$84
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$798now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days−$23
14 days−$37
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$293
sports 14% −$110
politics 2% −$4
crypto 0% −$1
finance 0% −$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -10.2% -18.7% 61% 56% -14.0%
≤30d 21 -17.7% -25.5% 57% 52% -16.5%
≤90d 22 -21.4% -28.9% 55% 50% -17.0%
all 34 -20.5% -28.1% 47% 44% +12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 44% +12.6%
10% -35.0% 26% +1.9%
15% -41.2% 18% -8.0%
20% -47.0% 15% -17.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$9 · ×2.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$798
Realized+$257
Unrealized−$84
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)34 / 43
History coverage175d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $286 $328 +$41 (+14%)
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $250 $130 −$120 (-48%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 23¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $51 $38 −$13 (-25%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 +$3 +65%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $50 +$18 +35%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +12%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $60 +$12 +20%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 −$26 -84%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 −$12 -60%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $55 +$13 +24%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 22 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 Mar 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 11 $50 −$25 -50%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $20 −$3 -13%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 01 $10 −$1 -10%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 01 $5 −$1 -14%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 01 $2 $0 +13%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17? Feb 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Feb 14 $7 +$1 +18%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $416 +$331 +80%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 26 $36 −$4 -10%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 26 $20 +$10 +52%
Will Morocco win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Jan 18 $4 −$4 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 76¢ $65 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 86¢ $60 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $40 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $40 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 6d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 26¢ $8 6d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 80¢ $50 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 7d
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 7d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 8d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 74¢ $5 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 89¢ $5 8d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 92¢ $5 8d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 8d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 8d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 8d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 8d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $797.77 · official $797.77 (match) · 235 history records