Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:39:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D1
0xd189…06f4
crypto · 205 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$2,501 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,685 · open +$816
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$23,104
Realized+$1,685
Unrealized+$816
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses141 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)201 / 205
Avg bet$1,811
Trades / day442.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 201 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,851
7 days+$1,349
14 days+$1,685
30 days+$1,685
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Yes 84¢ 90¢ $10,080 $10,801 +$721 (+7%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $5,695 $5,709 +$14 (+0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $4,327 $4,395 +$68 (+2%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $1,966 $1,976 +$10 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $220 $222 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $792 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $990 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $859 +$39 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $740 +$60 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $995 +$304 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $817 +$330 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $548 +$151 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $439 +$79 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $321 −$321 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $3,452 +$35 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $207 −$107 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $90 +$20 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $754 +$246 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $424 −$424 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $538 +$362 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $260 +$240 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $735 +$265 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $956 +$478 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $1,601 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $570 −$570 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $501 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $78 +$22 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $189 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $1,528 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $564 −$14 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $144 +$56 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $72 +$28 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $144 +$56 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $792 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $1,146 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $6,222 +$87 +1%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 11 $2,058 +$2 +0%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 11 $2,077 +$2 +0%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $2,208 +$22 +1%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $2,219 +$22 +1%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 11 $3,764 +$4 +0%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $4,616 +$44 +1%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 11 $9,255 +$9 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $75 +$25 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $1,584 +$16 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $792 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET Jun 11 $1,860 +$16 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $158 +$42 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $338 +$81 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $239 +$61 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 76% +$1,537
sports 18% +$148
tech 6% +$814
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $319 12m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $236 18m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 95¢ $674 36m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $578 38m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $173 53m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $604 58m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $55 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 95¢ $86 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 95¢ $194 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $138 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $213 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $433 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 95¢ $932 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $3,463 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,660 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 85¢ $850 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $190 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,329 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $465 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 90¢ $904 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 88¢ $60 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $378 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $19 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $572 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 188 +4.4% -5.6% 70% 18% -9.1%
≤30d 201 +4.1% -5.8% 70% 16% -9.1%
≤90d 201 +4.1% -5.8% 70% 16% -9.1%
all 201 +4.1% -5.8% 70% 16% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover442.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 16% -9.1%
10% -14.8% 14% -17.8%
15% ← realistic here -23.0% 9% -25.7%
20% -30.6% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,104.08 · official $23,104.08 (match) · 3500 history records