Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:18:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd18a…4b74 crypto 273 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1968 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$13,443 (+6%) realized +$13,395 · open +$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate74%288W / 101L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$777per market
Trades / day1967.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,693now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$973
other 0% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1968 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 389 -19.1% -26.8% 74% 2% -19.7%
≤30d 389 -19.1% -26.8% 74% 2% -19.7%
≤90d 389 -19.1% -26.8% 74% 2% -19.7%
all 389 -19.1% -26.8% 74% 2% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1967.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.8% 2% -19.7%
10% -33.8% 1% -27.4%
15% ← realistic here -40.2% 1% -34.4%
20% -46.1% 1% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$1,250) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$272 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,693
Realized+$13,395
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses288 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)389 / 273
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$777
Trades / day1967.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 389 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $112 $160 +$48 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $23 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $11 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $8 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$15 +2943%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $0 +$1 +117%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $750 −$750 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $750 −$750 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $123 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $237 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $209 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 13m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,692.89 · official $1,686.49 (match) · 3500 history records