Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:04:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd18d…8955 world 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate30%14W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% $0
politics 14% $0
sports 11% $0
other 11% $0
economics 6% $0
finance 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.2% -9.3% 22% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 15 -0.0% -9.6% 27% 0% -9.5%
all 46 +0.8% -8.8% 30% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 4% -9.5%
10% -17.5% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.5% 2% -26.0%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage279d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $35 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $4 $0 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $18 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $9 $0 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $34 +$2 +4%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $38 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $39 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 24 $34 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $35 $0 +1%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $2 $0 +17%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 30 $4 −$1 -14%
Will Google have the second best AI model on September 30? Sep 30 $1 $0 +38%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 30 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 29 $22 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 28 $22 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 27 $8 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 26 $30 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Sep 25 $29 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 25 $48 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 23 $1 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 22 $27 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Sep 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 19 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $35 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $26 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $9 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $35 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $35 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $16 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $16 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 5¢ $4 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 5¢ $1 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 5¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $17 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $18 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $9 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $35 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $34 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $1 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $33 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $34 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $37 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $37 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $37 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 71¢ $38 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $38 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $39 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.79 · official $37.79 (match) · 157 history records