Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:48:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D1 0xd18d…fc51 sports 445 markets active 1h ago coverage 182d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 181d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,835 (+6%) realized +$3,823 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate35%182W / 341L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$176est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 182d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$218
other 25% +$1,719
sports 15% +$59
crypto 10% +$609
politics 4% +$127
tech 1% +$161
finance 1% −$105
culture 0% −$181
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 152 -44.0% -49.4% 20% 18% -35.3%
≤30d 264 -18.2% -26.0% 33% 24% -10.6%
≤90d 365 -16.4% -24.3% 33% 26% -10.5%
all 523 -18.0% -25.8% 35% 27% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 27% -7.5%
10% -32.9% 23% -16.3%
15% -39.4% 20% -24.4%
20% -45.3% 15% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$36 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$3,823
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses182 / 341
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$176
Open positions2
Markets (closed)523 / 445
History coverage182d ⚠
Avg bet$150
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 523 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $14 $25 +$11 (+82%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 258 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Trump say "World Cup" during Pennsylvania events on December 9? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? Jun 26 $18 −$30 -168%
Will Trump say "Chip" during Xi events on October 29? Jun 26 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Jun 26 $6 −$11 -180%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO1) Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Knicks vs. Timberwolves Jun 26 $21 −$9 -43%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on October 16? Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Trump say "Soybean" during Xi events on October 29? Jun 26 $13 −$13 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes? Jun 26 $15 −$21 -140%
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3) Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" during call with Service Members on November 27 Jun 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Jun 26 $4 −$5 -122%
Israel strikes Gaza by October 31? Jun 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Will 'Arc Raiders' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards? Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 3 Winner Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3) Jun 26 $105 −$105 -100%
Will "Black Phone 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 20m? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jun 26 $4 −$3 -82%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Top Esports (BO3) Jun 26 $173 −$176 -102%
Suns vs. Lakers Jun 26 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15? Jun 26 $7 −$55 -786%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with President of Finlan Jun 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Anthony Joshua win by decision or technical decision? Jun 26 $12 +$65 +531%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Team Secret Whales (BO1) Jun 26 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Jun 26 $13 −$16 -127%
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during Xi events on October 29? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs T1 (BO1) Jun 26 $46 −$46 -100%
Bucks vs. Pacers Jun 26 $4 +$15 +405%
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be betwe Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs Team Secret Whales (BO1) Jun 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Knicks vs. Celtics Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $27 +$283 +1047%
Will Trump say "Nvidia" or "General Motors" during Pennsylvania events Jun 26 $6 −$5 -97%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs 100 Thieves (BO1) Jun 26 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Trump say "Green New Scam" during Pennsylvania events on December Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Nuggets vs. Warriors Jun 26 $38 −$7 -19%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Cabinet Meetin Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump say "Farmer" at the Turkey Pardon on Tuesday? Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $19 43m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 43m
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $142 43m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 97¢ $169 48m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $121 59m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 59m
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $60 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $0 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $64 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $12 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $41 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $102 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $20 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $20 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $40 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $41 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY 7¢ $10 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 52¢ $10 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Australia win on 2026-0 SELL 11¢ $10 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 3h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 98¢ $64 3h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $62 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL 9¢ $7 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 72¢ $61 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.15 · official $35.15 (match) · 3500 history records