Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:04:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd18e…5a40 sports 57 markets active 10h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-11%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%17W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$17
other 25% −$9
sports 20% +$9
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +0.6% -9.0% 30% 26% -23.7%
≤30d 57 +0.6% -9.0% 30% 26% -23.7%
≤90d 57 +0.6% -9.0% 30% 26% -23.7%
all 57 +0.6% -9.0% 30% 26% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 26% -23.7%
10% -17.7% 19% -31.0%
15% -25.7% 19% -37.7%
20% -33.0% 19% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses17 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage6d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -9%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -9%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -9%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -10%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +306%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +150%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -77%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +275%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 11h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $6 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records