Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:42:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D1 0xd190…e445 sports 257 markets active 2h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,466 (+4%) realized +$1,566 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%145W / 111L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$477est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$854
14 days−$979
30 days+$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$1,113
other 7% −$434
crypto 0% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -26.6% -33.6% 44% 44% -47.7%
≤30d 180 -3.0% -12.2% 54% 53% -8.9%
≤90d 256 +0.2% -9.4% 57% 56% -7.0%
all 256 +0.2% -9.4% 57% 56% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 56% -7.0%
10% -18.1% 55% -15.9%
15% -26.0% 51% -24.1%
20% -33.2% 44% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$111 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$1,566
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses145 / 111
Est. fees paid−$477
Open positions1
Markets (closed)256 / 257
History coverage39d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 53¢ 14¢ $134 $34 −$100 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paul Skenes: Strikeouts O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $78 +$58 +74%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $203 −$200 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jun 19 $95 −$94 -99%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $175 +$123 +70%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins Jun 19 $88 +$88 +100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $60 +$28 +47%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $176 −$174 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$98 -98%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $69 −$68 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$15 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$6 +24%
ITF Taipei: Reina Goto vs Misaki Matsuda Jun 16 $28 +$9 +34%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Cl Jun 16 $137 −$109 -80%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $267 −$263 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $175 +$91 +52%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 14 $98 −$96 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit Jun 14 $62 +$36 +58%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $177 −$175 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $175 −$173 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $48 −$48 -99%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $182 −$180 -99%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 14 $158 −$155 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $655 −$223 -34%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $234 +$251 +107%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $340 −$95 -28%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $286 −$283 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Bos Jun 13 $228 +$151 +66%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Cl Jun 13 $44 −$43 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Jun 13 $110 +$83 +75%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $231 +$71 +31%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $137 −$6 -5%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 13 $167 +$138 +83%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $330 −$47 -14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $198 +$187 +94%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $167 +$101 +60%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $209 −$206 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $91 +$61 +67%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $177 +$194 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $496 +$229 +46%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 172.5 Jun 12 $194 −$191 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $277 −$9 -3%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $230 +$105 +46%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kia Tigers Jun 06 $131 −$130 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $91 +$40 +44%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $154 −$150 -97%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $144 +$101 +70%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Ne Jun 05 $21 −$21 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 05 $177 −$175 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 05 $226 −$224 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 53¢ $136 1h
Paul Skenes: Strikeouts O/U 6.5 SELL Over 99¢ $136 1h
Paul Skenes: Strikeouts O/U 6.5 BUY Over 56¢ $78 4h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $145 34h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. BUY No 60¢ $56 34h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. BUY No 60¢ $39 35h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $58 35h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 100¢ $298 36h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 58¢ $175 40h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins SELL LG Twins 99¢ $175 40h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 49¢ $88 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 94¢ $88 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 63¢ $60 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $39 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $137 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $100 3d
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Zsombor Piros 58¢ $28 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $32 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 4d
ITF Taipei: Reina Goto vs Misaki Matsuda SELL Misaki Matsuda 85¢ $37 4d
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Zsombor Piros 59¢ $41 4d
ITF Taipei: Reina Goto vs Misaki Matsuda BUY Misaki Matsuda 63¢ $28 4d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Cl SELL No 12¢ $27 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 60¢ $267 5d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 100¢ $267 5d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 65¢ $175 5d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies BUY No 61¢ $98 6d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit SELL No 99¢ $98 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.24 · official $13.95 · 522 history records