Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:20:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd191…75a9 crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate90%18W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$244
other 12% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -4.1% -13.3% 90% 10% -14.1%
≤30d 20 -4.1% -13.3% 90% 10% -14.1%
≤90d 20 -4.1% -13.3% 90% 10% -14.1%
all 20 -4.1% -13.3% 90% 10% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 10% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 0% -22.3%
15% -29.1% 0% -29.8%
20% -36.1% 0% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$196 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses18 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$290
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 24 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 24 $299 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $296 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 24 $290 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $288 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $285 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 24 $280 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 24 $32 +$4 +12%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $370 −$93 -25%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $329 +$42 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 23 $323 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 23 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $300 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $299 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $182 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $115 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $290 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $288 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $285 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $280 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $32 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 64¢ $278 11h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $370 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $370 14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 87¢ $329 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $323 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $300 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records