Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D1 0xd194…c51f other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$191 (-2%) realized −$191 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%16W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$333
7 days−$735
14 days−$359
30 days−$359
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$261
sports 28% −$123
crypto 1% +$73
world 1% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -14.9% -23.0% 38% 35% -18.6%
≤30d 39 -7.4% -16.3% 41% 38% -13.8%
≤90d 39 -7.4% -16.3% 41% 38% -13.8%
all 39 -7.4% -16.3% 41% 38% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 38% -13.8%
10% -24.3% 38% -22.0%
15% -31.6% 38% -29.6%
20% -38.3% 33% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$221 vs −$169 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$191
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses16 / 23
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage9d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $408 +$200 +49%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$73 +72%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $207 −$200 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $207 −$200 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $205 −$200 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $203 +$20 +10%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $104 −$100 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $409 +$247 +60%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $207 −$200 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $408 +$226 +56%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $207 −$207 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $207 −$207 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $204 −$204 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $104 −$100 -96%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$47 +46%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $207 −$200 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 +$234 +114%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $206 −$154 -75%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 +$309 +299%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$49 -47%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $206 −$206 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $310 −$310 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $208 −$208 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$71 +70%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $204 −$140 -68%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $410 +$358 +88%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $206 +$392 +190%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $206 +$537 +261%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $306 +$161 +52%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $103 +$281 +273%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $205 +$216 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $103 +$160 +156%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $609 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $102 8h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $207 15h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $207 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $408 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $205 20h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 65¢ $102 22h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 65¢ $102 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $223 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 94¢ $101 23h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $104 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 84¢ $101 23h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $207 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $409 34h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $204 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $204 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 0¢ $1 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 0¢ $43 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 0¢ $41 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 0¢ $1 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 0¢ $1 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 0¢ $1 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 0¢ $1 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 0¢ $12 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 0¢ $1 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 0¢ $2 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $206 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records