Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:47:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D1 0xd196…15ce other 133 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$317 (+0%) realized +$318 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate20%26W / 105L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,456per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,489now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$17
14 days−$88
30 days+$797
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$147
politics 41% −$88
sports 11% +$552
world 3% −$9
economics 1% −$3
crypto 1% −$28
culture 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 39 +1.5% -8.2% 13% 8% -8.5%
≤90d 99 -3.1% -12.3% 11% 8% -9.8%
all 131 +6.1% -4.0% 20% 17% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 17% -9.4%
10% -13.2% 17% -18.1%
15% -21.6% 15% -26.0%
20% -29.2% 13% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,167) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$21 · ×4.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$1,489
Realized+$318
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses26 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions2
Markets (closed)131 / 133
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,456
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,155 $1,154 −$1 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $335 $334 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $4,354 −$5 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $311 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,224 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,297 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,299 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $2,846 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,300 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $3,232 −$5 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $6,548 −$8 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,177 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $5,310 −$7 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,599 −$3 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $1,202 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $59 +$26 +44%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $1,572 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $4,211 −$6 -0%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 05 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $1,523 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $3,745 −$4 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,241 −$4 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $4,292 −$4 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 02 $263 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $492 +$1 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $879 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $849 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $1,970 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,608 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $2,294 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $2,068 −$3 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $1,250 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $1,058 −$2 -0%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,378 −$2 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,275 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,375 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $1,380 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $1,380 −$2 -0%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 21 $737 +$976 +133%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $725 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $687 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $2,267 −$3 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $809 −$1 -0%
Valorant: DRX vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 08 $1,149 −$1,149 -100%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $1,517 −$2 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,738 −$2 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 25 $1,715 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $3,926 −$4 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2,773 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $2,930 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,155 6m
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $995 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $997 4h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $310 4h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $311 6h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,222 46h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,224 47h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,295 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,297 2d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,297 3d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,299 3d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,303 3d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,305 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,298 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,300 4d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $335 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,620 7d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,623 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,539 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,541 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,514 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,516 8d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,522 9d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,524 9d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,607 9d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,609 10d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,633 10d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,636 10d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,596 11d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,599 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,488.56 · official $1,488.56 (match) · 460 history records