Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:31:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D1
0xd19c…f16b
other · 26 markets active 4d ago
0.0score
−$74,763 -31%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$74,463 · open −$300
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$300
Realized−$74,463
Unrealized−$300
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses5 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
Avg bet$9,338
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%
Chart Positions 1 History 25 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$440
14 days−$440
30 days−$440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $600 $300 −$300 (-50%)
Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $980 $0 −$980 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $24,997 $0 −$24,997 (-100%)
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $3,500 $0 −$3,500 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? No 35¢ 0¢ $64,662 $0 −$64,662 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $541 $0 −$541 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $3,225 $0 −$3,225 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will John Wasnock win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2,871 $0 −$2,871 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $52 −$50 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $47 −$45 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $42 −$40 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $31 −$30 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $42 −$40 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $42 −$40 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $42 −$40 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $58 −$55 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $63 −$60 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $16 −$15 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $26 −$25 -95%
Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Mar 31 $543 −$541 -100%
Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Mar 29 $980 −$980 -100%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66? Mar 13 $2,552 +$1,572 +62%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? Mar 13 $3,700 +$6,300 +170%
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes? Nov 26 $22,300 −$2,300 -10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Nov 25 $25,000 −$24,997 -100%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Nov 03 $31,412 +$36,839 +117%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 09 $3,500 −$3,500 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 20 $39,300 +$15,700 +40%
Will John Wasnock win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? Jul 16 $2,871 −$2,871 -100%
Pump.fun announces public raise sold out in the first hour? Jul 12 $6,200 +$3,800 +61%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris? Apr 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? Dec 30 $3,225 −$3,225 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $100,084 −$99,782 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 41% −$99,782
other 19% −$2,522
economics 16% +$15,700
crypto 13% +$36,839
world 10% −$24,997
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $352 3d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $266 3d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $52 3d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $39 3d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $8 3d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $37 3d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 3d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 3d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 3d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $38 3d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $42 3d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $58 3d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $63 3d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $16 3d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 3d
Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 72d
Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 72d
Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 72d
Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 72d
Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 72d
Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 72d
Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 72d
Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 72d
Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 72d
Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 72d
Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 72d
Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 72d
Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-62.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 11 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 13 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 25 -58.4% -62.4% 20% 20% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -62.4% 20% -26.7%
10% ← realistic here -66.0% 20% -33.8%
15% -69.2% 20% -40.2%
20% -72.3% 16% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.00 · official $300.00 (match) · 1005 history records