Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:17:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D1 0xd19e…2fc9 other 117 markets active 0h ago coverage 235d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$803 (+32%) realized +$821 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%47W / 64L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$44
14 days+$44
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$596
sports 18% +$36
world 7% +$89
crypto 7% +$88
politics 1% −$16
economics 0% −$10
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +30.4% +18.0% 56% 56% +12.8%
≤30d 16 +30.4% +18.0% 56% 56% +12.8%
≤90d 36 +9.6% -0.8% 50% 50% +15.9%
all 111 +35.5% +22.6% 42% 41% +19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.6% 41% +19.2%
10% +10.8% 41% +7.8%
15% +0.1% 41% -2.6%
20% -9.7% 36% -12.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +63% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$16 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$821
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses47 / 64
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)111 / 117
History coverage235d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 53¢ 52¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Germany leading at halftime? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists Yes 25¢ 13¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-47%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$18 +58%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$12 +115%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +109%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 +$25 +165%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$4 -77%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +67%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $7 +$10 +146%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$20 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 +$2 +44%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main C May 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $25 −$25 -98%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 25 $20 +$10 +51%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Trump say "Disgusting" in April? Apr 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $40 +$35 +88%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026? Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $135 +$191 +141%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 15 $25 +$24 +97%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-12? Apr 15 $25 +$35 +140%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $10 +$8 +82%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $20 +$39 +194%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $30 −$30 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight Mar 30 $10 +$12 +117%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $7 +$16 +233%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $30 +$39 +130%
Will Kanye West release an album in 2026? Mar 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $28 +$137 +488%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 10 $8 +$2 +25%
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? Mar 01 $24 +$17 +70%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Feb 22 $5 +$12 +233%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 13m
Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists BUY Yes 25¢ $5 14m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $15 15m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $48 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 75¢ $22 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $5 3h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 34¢ $10 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 26h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 22¢ $3 46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 46h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $15 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 11¢ $1 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $8 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $7 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $3 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $5 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $10 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 6d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $25 32d
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 34d
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 34d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 36¢ $10 41d
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 45d
UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main C BUY Ollie Schmid 16¢ $5 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.46 · official $30.46 (match) · 218 history records