Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:29:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D1 0xd19e…d70e sports 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,338 (+23%) realized +$2,338 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%20W / 15L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$136est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$639
7 days+$284
14 days+$284
30 days+$1,645
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$2,261
other 4% −$400
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -3.3% -12.5% 45% 45% +1.8%
≤30d 33 +10.9% +0.4% 55% 55% +5.8%
≤90d 35 +14.2% +3.4% 57% 57% +7.3%
all 35 +14.2% +3.4% 57% 57% +7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 57% +7.3%
10% -6.5% 54% -3.0%
15% -15.6% 54% -12.3%
20% -23.8% 49% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$296 vs −$270 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,338
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses20 / 15
Est. fees paid−$136
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage30d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $375 +$69 +18%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $315 −$308 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $337 +$211 +62%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $295 −$288 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $214 +$200 +93%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $125 +$103 +83%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $227 +$697 +307%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $676 −$666 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $339 +$419 +124%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $337 +$184 +55%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $449 +$245 +55%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $397 +$1,539 +388%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Jun 03 $336 +$165 +49%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 30 $296 +$150 +50%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 30 $561 +$321 +57%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $49 +$56 +115%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $340 +$494 +145%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $251 −$245 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $160 +$91 +57%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner May 24 $297 −$293 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 24 $375 −$372 -99%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 24 $408 −$400 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 24 $336 +$154 +46%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 24 $323 +$266 +82%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner May 23 $262 −$256 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner May 23 $450 +$335 +74%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 22 $77 −$77 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $343 −$339 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 22 $415 −$410 -99%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $101 +$58 +58%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 22 $199 +$157 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? BUY Over 44¢ $102 1h
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? BUY Over 13¢ $103 1h
Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? BUY Over 44¢ $102 1h
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? BUY Over 44¢ $102 1h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 86¢ $334 27h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 73¢ $41 27h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 20¢ $315 42h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 55¢ $112 2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 64¢ $224 2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 26¢ $295 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $414 3d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 51¢ $214 3d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $228 4d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $924 4d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 24¢ $227 5d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 54¢ $125 5d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 31¢ $113 14d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 47¢ $113 14d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 59¢ $449 14d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 44¢ $339 14d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 64¢ $337 14d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 64¢ $449 15d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Yandex 100¢ $1,936 17d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 35¢ $56 17d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 19¢ $114 17d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 19¢ $227 17d
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe BUY Inner Circle 66¢ $336 17d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner SELL Aurora 100¢ $446 21d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY Aurora 69¢ $224 21d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY Aurora 57¢ $72 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records