Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:37:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D1
0xd19f…8eb5
weather · 1275 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$58 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$66 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$25
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1204 / 66
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1270 / 1275
History coverage83d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day31.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 1270 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$9
14 days+$17
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? No 99¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 13? No 98¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 15? Yes 95¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on May 17? Yes 95¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 4? Yes 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 4? No 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May 15? Yes 96¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 4? Yes 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 6? Yes 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on May 28? No 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 24? No 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 8? Yes 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 27? Yes 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 7? Yes 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 23? Yes 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 4? Yes 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 15? No 97¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on May 29? Yes 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? No 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? No 99¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 24? Yes 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$66
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 SELL No 100¢ $5 33m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 36m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 51m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 410 +0.5% -9.1% 96% 1% -9.1%
≤30d 1117 -0.6% -10.1% 95% 1% -9.7%
≤90d 1270 -0.6% -10.1% 95% 2% -10.5%
all 1270 -0.6% -10.1% 95% 2% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 2% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 1% -19.1%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.9%
20% -33.7% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $25.03 (match) · 2720 history records