Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:14:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D1 0xd19f…8fc6 crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$17 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%12W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +2.3% -7.5% 67% 50% -7.4%
≤30d 18 +2.3% -7.5% 67% 50% -7.4%
≤90d 18 +2.3% -7.5% 67% 50% -7.4%
all 18 +2.3% -7.5% 67% 50% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 50% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 33% -16.2%
15% -24.4% 11% -24.3%
20% -31.8% 6% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$20 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses12 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 67¢ 52¢ $33 $25 −$8 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 29 $41 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $42 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 29 $35 +$15 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $47 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $47 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 29 $37 +$13 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $47 −$17 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $40 −$15 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 29 $36 +$9 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 29 $38 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 29 $46 −$46 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 29 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 29 $81 −$13 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 29 $22 +$42 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $45 +$13 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$20 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $34 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $41 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $42 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $35 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $41 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $47 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $47 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $47 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $37 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $58 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $21 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.37 · official $28.81 · 36 history records