Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:12:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1a0…5bdc crypto 571 markets active 5h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,024 (-17%) realized −$4,024 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%198W / 373L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$631
7 days−$656
14 days−$723
30 days−$686
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$4,221
other 4% +$33
sports 4% −$260
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -18.8% -26.5% 40% 36% -31.4%
≤30d 168 -9.7% -18.3% 45% 38% -26.1%
≤90d 419 -10.4% -18.9% 37% 32% -28.3%
all 571 -12.8% -21.1% 35% 31% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 31% -28.1%
10% -28.7% 27% -35.0%
15% -35.6% 25% -41.3%
20% -41.9% 21% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$33 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,024
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses198 / 373
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)571 / 571
History coverage227d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 571 Trades
no open positions (306 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $133 −$130 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$74 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $106 +$39 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$11 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$13 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $53 +$118 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 +$20 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$54 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $105 +$181 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$7 -94%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $62 −$61 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$27 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$55 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$36 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$22 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 5h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 15h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $31 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $53 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $145 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $106 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $52 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $52 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $21 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $6 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1200 history records