Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:11:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1a1…7beb sports 1151 markets active 5d ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (344 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3,686 (+1%) realized +$3,686 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%1133W / 17L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$300per market
Trades / day343.6pace
Fees−$291est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$2,149
other 1% +$23
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (344 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 208 -0.6% -10.1% 97% 0% -17.0%
≤30d 1150 +1.2% -8.4% 99% 1% -9.9%
≤90d 1150 +1.2% -8.4% 99% 1% -9.9%
all 1150 +1.2% -8.4% 99% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover343.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 1% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 0% -18.5%
15% -25.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -32.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$389 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,686
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1133 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$291
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1150 / 1151
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$300
Trades / day343.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1150 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Marcinko (-1.5) vs Waltert (+1.5) Jun 20 $3,429 −$3,387 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert Jun 20 $7,861 −$2,198 -28%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Jun 20 $216 +$2 +1%
Petra Marcinko vs. Simona Waltert: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $495 −$495 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $4,208 +$42 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Fritz Jun 20 $752 +$8 +1%
Set Handicap: Dzumhur (-1.5) vs Kukushkin (+1.5) Jun 20 $36 +$1 +2%
Set 1 Winner: Svajda vs Huesler Jun 20 $145 +$1 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Navarro vs Golubic Jun 20 $3,353 −$307 -9%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Federico Bondiol Jun 20 $45 +$1 +2%
Set Handicap: Molcan (-1.5) vs Sesko (+1.5) Jun 20 $33 $0 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Ghibaudo vs Biryukov Jun 20 $26 $0 +1%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Jun 20 $6 $0 +1%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $248 +$2 +1%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $2,919 +$42 +1%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) Jun 20 $13 $0 +1%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 20 $104 +$1 +1%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $798 +$8 +1%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 20 $98 +$1 +1%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $9 $0 +1%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $248 +$2 +1%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) Jun 20 $104 +$1 +1%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Jun 20 $257 +$3 +1%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 20 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamon Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $935 +$9 +1%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5) Jun 20 $70 +$1 +1%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariner Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $104 +$1 +1%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $307 +$3 +1%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $77 +$1 +1%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $248 +$2 +1%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $599 +$6 +1%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $27 $0 +1%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $205 +$2 +1%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $164 +$2 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Marcinko (-1.5) vs Waltert (+1.5) SELL Marcinko $19 5d
Set Handicap: Marcinko (-1.5) vs Waltert (+1.5) SELL Marcinko $4 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert SELL Petra Marcinko 57¢ $2,594 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert SELL Petra Marcinko 67¢ $3,068 5d
Set Handicap: Marcinko (-1.5) vs Waltert (+1.5) BUY Marcinko 99¢ $1,289 5d
Petra Marcinko vs. Simona Waltert: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 99¢ $391 5d
Set Handicap: Marcinko (-1.5) vs Waltert (+1.5) BUY Marcinko 99¢ $50 5d
Petra Marcinko vs. Simona Waltert: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 99¢ $104 5d
Set Handicap: Marcinko (-1.5) vs Waltert (+1.5) BUY Marcinko 99¢ $50 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert BUY Petra Marcinko 84¢ $3,592 5d
Set Handicap: Marcinko (-1.5) vs Waltert (+1.5) BUY Marcinko 71¢ $2,041 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert BUY Petra Marcinko 85¢ $4,269 5d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY Yes 99¢ $99 5d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY Yes 99¢ $117 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart BUY Hamish Stewart 99¢ $2 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart BUY Hamish Stewart 99¢ $3 5d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 99¢ $572 5d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 99¢ $1,980 5d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 99¢ $226 5d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 99¢ $319 5d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 99¢ $1,030 5d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 99¢ $6 5d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 99¢ $2 5d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 99¢ $70 5d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 99¢ $3 5d
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Fritz BUY Zverev 99¢ $214 5d
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Fritz BUY Zverev 99¢ $256 5d
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Fritz BUY Zverev 99¢ $177 5d
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Fritz BUY Zverev 99¢ $105 5d
Set 1 Winner: Svajda vs Huesler BUY Svajda 99¢ $145 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records