Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:29:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1a2…63d5 sports 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized +$94 · open −$100
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$105
sports 10% −$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -30.3% -36.9% 37% 37% -11.3%
≤30d 30 -30.3% -36.9% 37% 37% -11.3%
≤90d 30 -30.3% -36.9% 37% 37% -11.3%
all 30 -30.3% -36.9% 37% 37% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.9% 37% -11.3%
10% -43.0% 37% -19.7%
15% -48.5% 33% -27.5%
20% -53.5% 30% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$55 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$94
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage6d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 45¢ 20¢ $120 $52 −$68 (-57%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 67¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $5 +$4 +81%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +54%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $5 +$6 +123%
England vs. Ghana: England 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Ghana: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 23 $10 +$9 +91%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Iraq: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 23 $20 +$19 +92%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $31 +$20 +67%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$22 +43%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $62 +$41 +67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $196 −$134 -68%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $61 +$34 +55%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,513 +$575 +23%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$1 -6%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $556 −$530 -95%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $336 +$220 +66%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $224 −$224 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $123 26m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $32 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 68¢ $7 2h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 81¢ $31 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 81¢ $11 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 35¢ $3 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $5 4h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 35¢ $5 4h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes $5 4h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners SELL Over 100¢ $19 5h
England vs. Ghana: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Even 52¢ $5 6h
England vs. Ghana: England 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 6h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes $10 7h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes $5 7h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $20 10h
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 27h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $31 28h
France vs. Iraq: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Even 51¢ $20 30h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $10 30h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $52 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $51 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.10 · official $52.10 (match) · 66 history records