Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:19:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1a2…f53c crypto 92 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (163 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$78 (+5%) realized +$151 · open −$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate57%47W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day163.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$31
other 47% +$10
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (163 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +1.2% -8.5% 57% 51% -5.6%
≤30d 83 +1.2% -8.5% 57% 51% -5.6%
≤90d 83 +1.2% -8.5% 57% 51% -5.6%
all 83 +1.2% -8.5% 57% 51% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover163.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 51% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 41% -14.6%
15% -25.2% 37% -22.9%
20% -32.6% 31% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$273
Realized+$151
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses47 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)83 / 92
History coverage2d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day163.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 65¢ 42¢ $220 $144 −$76 (-35%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 83¢ 88¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+7%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 71¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $55 +$34 +61%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $35 +$22 +63%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$4 +21%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $5 +$21 +414%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $251 +$48 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 24 $8 +$6 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$6 +42%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +38%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$10 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$11 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$8 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 20m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 20m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $81 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 3h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $40 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 5h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 18h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 18h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 18h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 18h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 18h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $5 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 19h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $0 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.98 · official $275.34 (match) · 327 history records