Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:15:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D1 0xd1a5…1154 world 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% −$6
other 25% $0
economics 2% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 4 -3.0% -12.3% 25% 0% -11.5%
≤90d 11 -2.2% -11.6% 45% 0% -11.0%
all 19 -1.3% -10.7% 53% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -10.7%
10% -19.3% 0% -19.2%
15% -27.1% 0% -27.0%
20% -34.2% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage452d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $57 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $2 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $31 −$4 -12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $31 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $27 −$4 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $38 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $37 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $27 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 20 $51 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $10 $0 +4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 20 $2 $0 -4%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Apr 02 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $6 49m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $23 49m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $29 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $24 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $5 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $28 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 11h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $5 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $23 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $27 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 93¢ $21 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 93¢ $9 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $31 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $16 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $27 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $39 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $38 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $38 32d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $37 32d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $11 33d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 33d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $19 33d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $18 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records