Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:25:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1a6…3a51 crypto 570 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (145 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,106 (-9%) realized −$4,106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%313W / 257L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day145.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,275
world 1% +$1,650
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (145 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 250 -18.1% -25.9% 45% 45% -35.7%
≤30d 570 +1.0% -8.7% 55% 55% -8.8%
≤90d 570 +1.0% -8.7% 55% 55% -8.8%
all 570 +1.0% -8.7% 55% 55% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover145.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 55% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 55% -17.5%
15% -25.4% 55% -25.5%
20% -32.7% 54% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$82 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses313 / 257
Open positions0
Markets (closed)570 / 570
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$82
Trades / day145.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 570 Trades
no open positions (59 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$97 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $105 +$89 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $102 −$99 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $12 +$8 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $115 +$85 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $169 −$168 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $122 −$119 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $106 +$94 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $170 +$130 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $165 −$165 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $120 +$80 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $170 +$130 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $159 +$141 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $111 +$89 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$9 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$9 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$9 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$9 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $175 +$125 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $104 −$101 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$10 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $12 +$8 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$9 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $110 +$90 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $108 −$105 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $35 +$31 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $34 −$32 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $106 +$94 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $117 +$83 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $64 +$54 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$9 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$9 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$9 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$11 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$30 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$38 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$9 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $12 +$8 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$9 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$9 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$9 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $9 +$11 +115%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $18 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $62 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $102 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $59 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $14 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $12 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records