Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:38:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1a7…95eb other 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$68 (+1%) realized +$81 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate23%23W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$450now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$271
7 days+$336
14 days+$204
30 days+$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$16
other 30% +$243
tech 9% −$14
politics 8% −$30
finance 7% +$1
culture 7% −$16
economics 5% +$23
sports 3% −$142
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -10.7% -19.2% 21% 21% +28.7%
≤30d 41 -17.7% -25.6% 12% 10% +3.0%
≤90d 89 -15.3% -23.4% 21% 9% -8.2%
all 98 -16.6% -24.5% 23% 9% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 9% -8.5%
10% -31.7% 8% -17.2%
15% -38.3% 8% -25.2%
20% -44.4% 7% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 81% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$8 · ×3.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$450
Realized+$81
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses23 / 75
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)98 / 103
History coverage158d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $354 $351 −$3 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $98 $95 −$3 (-3%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Yes 10¢ $8 $4 −$5 (-55%)
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $57 −$3 -5%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $39 −$12 -30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $204 +$286 +140%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $145 −$142 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$4 -41%
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? Jun 23 $17 −$5 -29%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Jun 23 $17 $0 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $8 $0 -2%
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the France vs Iraq FIFA W Jun 23 $0 $0 -95%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 23 $6 +$12 +190%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the France vs Iraq FIFA World C Jun 23 $1 $0 -70%
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the France vs Iraq FIFA Worl Jun 23 $0 $0 -95%
Will Starmer officially leave office by June 30? Jun 23 $0 $0 -79%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $294 +$206 +70%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $138 −$135 -98%
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 17 $38 −$4 -9%
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Jun 17 $3 $0 -4%
Will Saudi Arabia sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -19%
Will RH (RH) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 16 $13 +$7 +59%
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 07 $12 −$3 -25%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in June? Jun 07 $7 $0 -1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 07 $2 $0 -1%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 07 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $390 in June? Jun 07 $12 $0 -2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 07 $4 $0 -3%
Will Designer Brands (DBI) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $6 −$1 -23%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 02 $3 $0 -7%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? Jun 02 $50 −$3 -6%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Jun 02 $26 −$3 -12%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 02 $36 −$1 -4%
Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -30%
Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 2 May 29 $1 $0 -3%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? May 29 $9 $0 -3%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $165 in May? May 29 $0 $0 -11%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $320 in May? May 29 $2 $0 -14%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market c May 29 $11 $0 -4%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $640 in May? May 24 $13 $0 -1%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 24 $16 −$1 -8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 24 $15 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $16 $0 +3%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? May 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 24 $8 +$11 +143%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $3 −$2 -96%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? May 19 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $99 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $54 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $358 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $100 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $27 14h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $39 17h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $57 18h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $145 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 3d
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? SELL No 60¢ $12 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $16 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $5 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $17 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 3d
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? BUY No 83¢ $17 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $6 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $1 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $1 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $1 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $1 3d
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the France vs Iraq FIFA W SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 37¢ $18 3d
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the France vs Iraq FIFA World C SELL Yes $0 3d
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the France vs Iraq FIFA W BUY Yes $0 3d
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the France vs Iraq FIFA Worl SELL Yes $0 3d
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the France vs Iraq FIFA Worl BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Starmer officially leave office by June 30? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the France vs Iraq FIFA World C BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Starmer officially leave office by June 30? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $294 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $449.99 · official $449.99 (match) · 387 history records