Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:02:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1a9…b949 world 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$41 (+1%) realized +$42 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%27W / 44L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days+$22
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% $0
world 38% +$27
other 21% +$11
sports 2% $0
finance 1% +$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.0% -11.4% 11% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 32 +1.4% -8.2% 38% 3% -8.6%
≤90d 45 +0.9% -8.7% 40% 2% -9.1%
all 71 +1.1% -8.5% 38% 3% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 3% -9.0%
10% -17.3% 3% -17.7%
15% -25.3% 1% -25.7%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.12 per $1 lost it wins $3.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$42
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses27 / 44
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage308d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 80¢ 80¢ $86 $86 −$1 (-1%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $122 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $89 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $113 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $110 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $124 −$2 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $123 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $6 $0 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $202 −$2 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $21 −$2 -11%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $118 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $131 −$5 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $57 +$26 +45%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $72 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $82 +$8 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $57 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $104 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $102 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $143 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $20 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $101 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $199 −$2 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $101 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $100 +$2 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $100 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $24 +$2 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $108 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $76 +$2 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $13 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $106 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $13 $0 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $3 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $56 −$1 -2%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $132 +$1 +1%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 26 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 25 $62 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $56 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $56 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,244 +$1 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $648 +$1 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $648 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $43 +$11 +25%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $48 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $136 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $43 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $86 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 9h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $76 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $46 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $52 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $70 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $38 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $42 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $32 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $113 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $87 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $87 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $12 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $98 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $25 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $85 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $26 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $96 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $22 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $7 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $94 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $123 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $81 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $42 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $5 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.53 · official $84.78 · 344 history records