Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:18:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1af…c4d1 sports 187 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$1,120 (+0%) realized −$494 · open +$345
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%100W / 84L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,863per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Fees−$2,121est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$8,919now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,961
7 days−$12,680
14 days−$15,736
30 days−$1,198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$1,750
politics 31% $0
other 19% +$1,327
crypto 0% +$274
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +11.1% +0.5% 50% 50% -17.8%
≤30d 120 +33.7% +21.0% 54% 54% -10.1%
≤90d 184 +20.7% +9.2% 54% 53% -9.8%
all 184 +20.7% +9.2% 54% 53% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.2% 53% -9.8%
10% -1.3% 47% -18.4%
15% ← realistic here -10.8% 40% -26.3%
20% -19.6% 33% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$1,595) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$953 vs −$1,154 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$8,919
Realized−$494
Unrealized+$345
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses100 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$2,121
Open positions3
Markets (closed)184 / 187
History coverage44d
Avg bet$1,863
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 72¢ 72¢ $7,284 $7,351 +$67 (+1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $879 $883 +$4 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 60¢ 100¢ $411 $685 +$274 (+67%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 53¢ $1,097 $0 −$1,097 (-100%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? No 31¢ $622 $0 −$622 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 89¢ $1,595 $0 −$1,595 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Golden Knights 41¢ $677 $0 −$677 (-100%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? No 55¢ $412 $0 −$412 (-100%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 74¢ $5,523 $0 −$5,523 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? No 63¢ $905 $0 −$905 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $791 +$204 +26%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,462 +$270 +18%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $418 −$412 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $6,467 −$6,119 -95%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $376 +$307 +82%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $434 +$532 +123%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $236 +$976 +413%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $5,566 −$5,523 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1,097 +$456 +42%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,173 +$1,872 +160%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $435 +$475 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,113 −$1,097 -99%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $25,782 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $278 +$128 +46%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,359 +$593 +44%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $915 −$905 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $677 −$677 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $119 +$87 +73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $635 −$622 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,600 −$1,595 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $1,952 +$578 +30%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2,205 −$2,205 -100%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $82,793 $0 +0%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $61 −$3 -5%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1,267 −$1,267 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 07 $1,731 −$1,731 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 07 $6,409 −$6,409 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $1,732 +$215 +12%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $3,977 −$2,285 -58%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $4,371 −$1,286 -29%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $1,000 +$7,123 +712%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $1,723 +$2,309 +134%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $4,244 +$6,157 +145%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $3,048 −$3,048 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $2,376 −$2,376 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 02 $263 −$263 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $196 −$196 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $4,370 +$1,247 +28%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang May 31 $1,883 +$457 +24%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $1,471 +$3,860 +262%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $1,194 −$1,194 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $859 −$859 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $703 +$192 +27%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $366 +$191 +52%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien May 30 $313 +$194 +62%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $1,198 −$1,198 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 29 $540 +$2,204 +408%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $1,049 +$224 +21%
Roland Garros WTA: Solana Sierra vs Sorana Cirstea May 29 $606 +$190 +32%
Roland Garros WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Yulia Starodubtseva May 29 $782 +$1,409 +180%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 60¢ $83 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 60¢ $83 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 60¢ $83 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 60¢ $83 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 60¢ $83 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $1,680 12h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $1,454 14h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $139 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $70 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $70 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $70 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $70 17h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $3,901 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $3,901 18h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $64 20h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $64 20h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $64 20h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $64 20h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $55 20h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $65 20h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $32 20h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $32 20h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $32 20h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $31 20h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $791 21h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $4,603 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 58¢ $76 23h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $1,738 23h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $1,213 23h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $2,783 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,918.83 · official $8,918.83 (match) · 1374 history records