Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D1 0xd1b1…6fc0 other 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$44 (+11%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate61%42W / 27L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$18
14 days+$36
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$48
sports 21% +$11
crypto 15% −$7
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.1% -8.5% 67% 67% +9.9%
≤30d 9 +16.1% +5.1% 67% 67% +21.6%
≤90d 38 +9.4% -1.0% 61% 58% +8.6%
all 69 +3.7% -6.2% 61% 52% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 52% +2.1%
10% -15.1% 41% -7.7%
15% -23.3% 36% -16.6%
20% -30.9% 28% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses42 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage132d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $33 +$21 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +19%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$8 +53%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 09 $8 +$16 +197%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 +$3 +114%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026? May 16 $10 +$10 +100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week May 09 $15 +$4 +26%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? May 06 $8 +$1 +11%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $3 +$2 +73%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $4 +$4 +93%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $6 +$4 +67%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? May 03 $3 −$1 -39%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 Apr 30 $1 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $5 +$2 +49%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $2 +$2 +101%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $7 +$6 +82%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-22? Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $7 +$10 +146%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Apr 19 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $6 −$2 -34%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $8 +$4 +50%
T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1) Apr 18 $11 −$2 -14%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-14? Apr 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 17 $6 +$4 +64%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 17 $3 $0 -3%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 17 $6 +$3 +57%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? Mar 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10? Mar 11 $8 +$5 +67%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 16 $4 +$2 +47%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Feb 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-21? Feb 16 $4 $0 -1%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 Feb 15 $2 +$1 +37%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18? Feb 15 $2 $0 -2%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $11 +$3 +30%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 Feb 13 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Feb 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $54 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $33 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $8 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $7 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $23 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 4d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 11d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 33¢ $8 14d
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 14¢ $2 15d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 35d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 35d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 35d
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $20 36d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $7 42d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? SELL Yes 85¢ $7 43d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 70¢ $6 43d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 43d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 64¢ $11 43d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week BUY Yes 36¢ $7 46d
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? SELL Yes 66¢ $3 46d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL No 64¢ $3 46d
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 46d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week BUY No 57¢ $3 47d
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 47d
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? SELL Yes 54¢ $6 47d
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 47d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 52¢ $4 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records