Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D1 0xd1b2…ba55 sports 15 markets active 1d ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$126 (-7%) realized −$126 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$28
14 days−$135
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$38
other 12% +$14
crypto 7% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -18.8% -26.5% 62% 25% -12.1%
≤30d 15 -23.9% -31.2% 60% 27% -16.2%
≤90d 15 -23.9% -31.2% 60% 27% -16.2%
all 15 -23.9% -31.2% 60% 27% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.2% 27% -16.2%
10% -37.7% 7% -24.2%
15% -43.8% 0% -31.5%
20% -49.3% 0% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$44 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage13d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $301 +$23 +8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 −$91 -91%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $135 +$20 +15%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $39 −$4 -10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $86 +$9 +10%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $37 +$2 +5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $259 +$33 +13%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $91 +$9 +10%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $448 +$6 +1%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 09 $28 −$28 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $73 +$17 +23%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $68 +$9 +13%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $64 −$35 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $0 28h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $9 28h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $14 28h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $60 28h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva SELL Alexander Zverev 97¢ $2 28h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva SELL Alexander Zverev 97¢ $240 28h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 83¢ $101 29h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 95¢ $200 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $19 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $9 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 74¢ $73 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 70¢ $70 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 81¢ $81 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $61 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $4 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 35¢ $6 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 35¢ $21 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 95¢ $95 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 98¢ $39 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 93¢ $37 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $86 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 90¢ $125 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 80¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 80¢ $20 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 80¢ $10 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 75¢ $75 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records