Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:15:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1bf…7690 sports 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$430 (-36%) realized −$422 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%10W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$335
14 days−$311
30 days−$311
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$206
crypto 17% −$199
other 11% −$6
politics 4% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -23.1% -30.4% 42% 42% -50.8%
≤30d 13 -16.5% -24.5% 46% 46% -45.9%
≤90d 22 -50.3% -55.0% 27% 27% -56.0%
all 27 -31.0% -37.6% 37% 37% -44.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.6% 37% -44.7%
10% -43.5% 30% -50.0%
15% -49.0% 19% -54.8%
20% -54.0% 19% -59.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$36 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$422
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses10 / 17
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage194d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner 9z 32¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $3 +$3 +107%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $15 −$11 -74%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 −$199 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $137 −$8 -6%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $70 −$26 -38%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $120 −$102 -85%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $47 +$8 +16%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $53 +$18 +33%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $30 −$23 -76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $50 +$10 +20%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $38 +$24 +63%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $51 −$46 -92%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Apr 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoff Apr 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) Apr 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Apr 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Apr 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 14 $20 +$23 +113%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 13 $20 +$17 +85%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe (BO3) Dec 12 $15 +$21 +141%
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? Dec 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 08 $99 +$30 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 32¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 14¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 52¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 99¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 47¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 79¢ $26 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $20 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 80¢ $200 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 99¢ $62 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 45¢ $28 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 36¢ $28 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 47¢ $38 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 24¢ $23 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 51¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 18¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 25¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 22¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte 13¢ $13 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 29¢ $30 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte 20¢ $30 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 25¢ $40 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL TheMongolz 14¢ $18 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 92¢ $120 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 99¢ $55 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $58 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 64¢ $38 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 85¢ $47 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 18¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 69 history records