Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:31:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D1 0xd1c3…72a8 sports 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,744 (+24%) realized +$1,765 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%28W / 27L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,451now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$653
7 days+$1,149
14 days+$1,149
30 days+$1,149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$704
other 41% +$423
crypto 2% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +30.7% +18.3% 55% 51% +8.8%
≤30d 49 +30.7% +18.3% 55% 51% +8.8%
≤90d 49 +30.7% +18.3% 55% 51% +8.8%
all 55 +18.7% +7.4% 51% 47% +8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.4% 47% +8.4%
10% -2.9% 42% -1.9%
15% -12.3% 40% -11.4%
20% -20.9% 35% -20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +55% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$59 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$1,451
Realized+$1,765
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses28 / 27
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions4
Markets (closed)55 / 65
History coverage166d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $730 $725 −$5 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 75¢ 74¢ $712 $709 −$3 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $303 −$300 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$138 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $405 +$256 +63%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $113 −$110 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 +$30 +291%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$65 +64%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 +$161 +158%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $304 +$204 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $102 +$7 +6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $13 +$8 +62%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,013 +$766 +76%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $31 −$26 -87%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $317 −$310 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $100 +$224 +223%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 −$9 -86%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $71 −$52 -73%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$39 +377%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 +$4 +38%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$9 +93%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $10 +$20 +197%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 +$25 +242%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $10 +$40 +390%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $10 +$52 +509%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$113 +112%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $112 +$128 +114%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$192 +188%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $202 +$115 +57%
Spread: Curaçao (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $955 +$119 +12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jan 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $30 17m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $2 18m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $10 18m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $604 19m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $605 19m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $101 20m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 21m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $202 17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $102 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 13¢ $10 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 18h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $166 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $263 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $508 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 6¢ $13 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 35¢ $96 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $102 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $102 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,450.75 · official $1,526.78 · 129 history records