Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:49:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1ce…d600 crypto 129 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-5%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate48%62W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 44d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$188
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -43.0% -48.4% 21% 19% -57.1%
≤30d 42 -43.0% -48.4% 21% 19% -57.1%
≤90d 129 -19.7% -27.3% 48% 22% -21.1%
all 129 -19.7% -27.3% 48% 22% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 22% -21.1%
10% -34.3% 12% -28.7%
15% -40.6% 8% -35.6%
20% -46.4% 5% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses62 / 67
Open positions0
Markets (closed)129 / 129
History coverage44d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 129 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$8 +756%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 04 $37 −$29 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 04 $46 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 04 $17 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 04 $36 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 04 $45 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 04 $45 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 03 $8 −$2 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $15 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $8 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 635 history records