Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1d3…d04d other 145 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate9%13W / 131L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$294per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$22
politics 37% −$19
sports 7% +$12
crypto 4% −$2
tech 4% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 108 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 144 +3.5% -6.4% 9% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 3% -9.6%
10% -15.3% 3% -18.2%
15% -23.5% 3% -26.1%
20% -31.0% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×7.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses13 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage120d
Avg bet$294
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $265 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $24 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $46 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $776 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $280 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 26 $264 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $275 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $284 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $966 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $197 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $285 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $220 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $251 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $255 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $1,056 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $511 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $274 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $292 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,054 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 06 $257 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $217 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $277 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $259 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $217 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $296 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $283 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $237 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $264 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $215 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $417 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $265 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $229 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $469 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $299 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? Apr 22 $275 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 22 $287 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 6h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 2d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $46 6d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $46 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 10d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $23 11d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 13d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 13d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 13d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $229 24d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $229 24d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $280 24d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $280 25d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $264 25d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $264 26d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $275 27d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $275 27d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $268 27d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $268 27d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $284 28d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $284 29d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $245 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.99 · official $26.99 (match) · 435 history records