Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:28:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D1 0xd1d8…cf06 other 293 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$17 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%102W / 170L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$1,269
14 days−$1,131
30 days−$571
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$888
sports 27% +$435
crypto 12% +$350
world 5% +$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 -48.7% -53.6% 19% 18% -35.6%
≤30d 241 -18.5% -26.3% 36% 31% -16.0%
≤90d 272 -13.3% -21.6% 38% 33% -9.4%
all 272 -13.3% -21.6% 38% 33% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 33% -9.4%
10% -29.1% 30% -18.1%
15% -35.9% 26% -26.0%
20% -42.2% 22% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$18 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses102 / 170
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions4
Markets (closed)272 / 293
History coverage36d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 272 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan leading at halftime? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 +$24 +234%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $30 +$48 +162%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Swe Jun 20 $15 +$90 +582%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $17 +$33 +190%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $66 +$46 +70%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1 Jun 19 $33 +$88 +270%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 +$10 +45%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +28%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 +$8 +156%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$21 +202%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $10 +$19 +185%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $12 +$24 +194%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $18 −$14 -78%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Sweden to win the second half? Jun 15 $41 +$42 +101%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $16 +$25 +153%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 +$13 +246%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$11 +112%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 +$20 +88%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 3 Jun 14 $347 −$76 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 14 $179 −$11 -6%
Will Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CD Moquegua win on 2026-05-29? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Kahrabaa Ismailia FC win on 2026-05-18? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Finland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Paderborn 1 - 0 Wolfsburg? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 99¢ $34 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 29¢ $10 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $78 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 37¢ $30 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $50 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 34¢ $17 14h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Swe BUY 14¢ $15 14h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 18h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to BUY 10¢ $5 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 26h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 13¢ $21 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $66 30h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 202 BUY 41¢ $30 36h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1 BUY 26¢ $33 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 55¢ $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 52¢ $8 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $10 2d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $45 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $55 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 1¢ $1 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 12¢ $20 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL 76¢ $32 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 51¢ $22 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 4d
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.00 · official $36.00 (match) · 799 history records