Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:09:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D1 0xd1da…27bd crypto 741 markets active 2h ago coverage 163d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$280 (-0%) realized −$335 · open +$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate58%425W / 314L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3,659now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 163d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$5,978
other 13% +$2,672
finance 1% +$15
world 0% +$27
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +16.1% +5.0% 100% 89% +3.3%
≤30d 9 +16.1% +5.0% 100% 89% +3.3%
≤90d 738 -7.2% -16.1% 57% 49% -11.3%
all 739 -7.1% -16.0% 58% 49% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 49% -11.3%
10% -24.0% 40% -19.8%
15% -31.4% 33% -27.5%
20% -38.1% 28% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$151 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$3,659
Realized−$335
Unrealized+$55
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses425 / 314
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)739 / 741
History coverage163d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 739 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 94¢ 95¢ $2,610 $2,647 +$37 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $994 $1,012 +$18 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,084 +$528 +17%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,990 +$83 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,978 +$474 +24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,237 +$291 +13%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,910 +$327 +17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,631 +$279 +17%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,431 +$200 +14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,278 +$153 +12%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $996 +$282 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 18 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 18 $66 +$15 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 18 $516 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 18 $308 +$184 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 18 $517 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 18 $309 +$218 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 18 $413 +$65 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 18 $370 +$266 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 18 $303 +$50 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 18 $2,039 −$2,039 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 18 $1,160 +$869 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 18 $517 −$506 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 18 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 18 $51 +$21 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 18 $133 −$30 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 18 $31 +$41 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 17 $1,134 −$1,100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 17 $2,050 −$2,000 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 17 $1,552 −$1,510 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 17 $323 −$313 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 17 $475 −$465 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 17 $466 −$448 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 17 $132 −$126 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 17 $113 −$110 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 17 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 17 $74 −$71 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 17 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 17 $41 +$24 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 17 $51 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 17 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 14 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 14 $32 +$31 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 14 $15 +$17 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 14 $12 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 14 $8 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 14 $6 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 13 $62 −$57 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 13 $258 −$250 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $999 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $998 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $1,617 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $3,084 18h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $2,451 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 99¢ $2,452 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 79¢ $1,978 20h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 50¢ $990 20h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $1,539 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,528 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $2,237 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $1,910 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,631 28h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 95¢ $1,631 28h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $1,431 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,278 45h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $1,278 45h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $996 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $84 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $81 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $66 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $516 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,659.18 · official $3,659.18 (match) · 2371 history records