Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:16:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1da…3ac9 crypto 114 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$59 (-4%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate60%68W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$80
7 days−$109
14 days−$111
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -3.4% -12.6% 59% 52% -16.0%
≤30d 114 -4.0% -13.2% 60% 51% -16.0%
≤90d 114 -4.0% -13.2% 60% 51% -16.0%
all 114 -4.0% -13.2% 60% 51% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 51% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 39% -24.1%
15% -29.1% 27% -31.4%
20% -36.0% 11% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses68 / 46
Open positions0
Markets (closed)114 / 114
History coverage12d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 114 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$24 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$17 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$26 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 28 $62 −$13 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 28 $35 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$17 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$7 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $16 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$4 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $71 −$50 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$14 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$4 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $45 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $21 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $20 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $29 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $31 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $14 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $31 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $31 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $48 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $36 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 304 history records