Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:25:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1dc…cc46 crypto 449 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (217 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$18,170 (+9%) realized +$18,170 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate42%392W / 540L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$426per market
Trades / day217.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$987
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (217 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-55.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 614 -79.5% -81.4% 19% 0% -49.1%
≤30d 932 -50.8% -55.5% 42% 1% -25.2%
≤90d 932 -50.8% -55.5% 42% 1% -25.2%
all 932 -50.8% -55.5% 42% 1% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover217.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.5% 1% -25.2%
10% ← realistic here -59.8% 1% -32.3%
15% -63.7% 0% -38.9%
20% -67.2% 0% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$80 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18,170
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses392 / 540
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)932 / 449
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$426
Trades / day217.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 932 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $330 −$330 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $241 −$241 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $411 −$411 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1AM ET Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $333 −$333 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4AM ET Jun 18 $157 −$157 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $317 −$317 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9PM ET Jun 18 $241 −$241 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $182 −$182 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10PM ET Jun 18 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $327 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $330 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $550 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $545 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $330 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $554 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $330 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $185 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $317 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $330 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $330 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $122 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $208 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $327 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $330 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records