Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:24:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D1 0xd1dd…2892 sports 37 markets active 2d ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$114 (+50%) realized +$114 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate86%32W / 5L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$104
politics 35% +$10
other 4% $0
world 3% $0
economics 3% $0
weather 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +0.3% -9.3% 95% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 23 +1.0% -8.7% 96% 4% -2.4%
≤90d 26 +6.4% -3.8% 96% 12% +0.0%
all 37 +7.4% -2.8% 86% 24% +35.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 24% +35.8%
10% -12.1% 19% +22.8%
15% -20.6% 19% +10.9%
20% -28.4% 16% +0.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×19.2 per $1 lost it wins $19.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses32 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage144d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 20 $2 $0 -0%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-Jun Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 15 Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $24 +$4 +17%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $42 +$4 +8%
Senators vs. Red Wings Apr 09 $1 +$2 +117%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 26 $14 +$2 +17%
Rockets vs. Bulls Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Virginia Cavaliers Mar 23 $2 +$2 +92%
Spread: Raptors (-2.5) Mar 23 $101 +$101 +100%
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Jazz vs. Kings Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Utah vs. Stars Mar 17 $2 +$2 +144%
Vermont Catamounts vs. UMBC Retrievers Mar 15 $1 +$1 +61%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Mar 14 $2 +$1 +45%
Ducks vs. Maple Leafs Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Grizzlies vs. 76ers Mar 11 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$82.5 in January? Feb 28 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 15 BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14 BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $2 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $2 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $2 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 9d
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY No 99¢ $1 9d
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY No 99¢ $2 9d
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-Jun BUY No 100¢ $2 9d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $28 14d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 67d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 67d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 67d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 67d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 67d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 185 history records