Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:35:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1e1…654b sports 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$117 (-25%) realized −$116 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-54.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -49.1% -54.0% 31% 31% -40.1%
≤30d 13 -49.1% -54.0% 31% 31% -40.1%
≤90d 13 -49.1% -54.0% 31% 31% -40.1%
all 13 -49.1% -54.0% 31% 31% -40.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.0% 31% -40.1%
10% -58.4% 31% -45.9%
15% -62.4% 23% -51.1%
20% -66.1% 15% -55.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -63% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$22 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$116
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage7d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets 48¢ 48¢ $41 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ 46¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 47¢ 46¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $56 +$13 +23%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $67 +$44 +65%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $26 +$13 +50%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $9 +$11 +124%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 47¢ $27 19m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $31 45m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 48¢ $41 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $41 42h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 42¢ $15 43h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ $67 44h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 66¢ $26 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $13 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 42¢ $13 3d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 45¢ $18 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 49¢ $9 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 49¢ $9 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $11 5d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $10 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 44¢ $9 6d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 51¢ $38 6d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $19 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 40¢ $17 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 48¢ $24 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 41¢ $21 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.55 · official $97.55 (match) · 33 history records