Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:50:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1e4…d125 crypto 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (209 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$259 (-6%) realized −$259 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate44%42W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day208.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$771
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (209 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -17.0% -24.9% 44% 35% -32.8%
≤30d 95 -17.0% -24.9% 44% 35% -32.8%
≤90d 95 -17.0% -24.9% 44% 35% -32.8%
all 95 -17.0% -24.9% 44% 35% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover208.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.9% 35% -32.8%
10% ← realistic here -32.1% 26% -39.2%
15% -38.7% 21% -45.1%
20% -44.7% 17% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$24 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$259
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses42 / 53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)95 / 95
History coverage2d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day208.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 95 Trades
no open positions (45 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $42 −$7 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $76 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $154 −$100 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $98 −$23 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $126 −$17 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $199 −$10 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $58 +$19 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $63 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 23 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $28 +$30 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $44 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $69 −$67 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $47 −$16 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $80 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $35 +$14 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $107 −$104 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $210 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $148 −$35 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $110 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $102 −$72 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $36 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $19 −$7 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $53 +$14 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $19 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $36 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $39 +$36 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $94 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $9 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $17 −$16 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $38 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 428 history records