Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:57:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D1 0xd1ea…9496 sports 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 205d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,294 (+4%) realized +$1,293 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate62%80W / 49L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$369est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$79
14 days+$37
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$1,059
world 5% −$6
crypto 0% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +4.1% -5.9% 75% 42% -6.1%
≤30d 51 -5.3% -14.3% 57% 37% -9.7%
≤90d 123 +1.0% -8.7% 62% 41% -6.7%
all 129 +1.4% -8.3% 62% 43% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 43% -6.7%
10% -17.1% 23% -15.6%
15% -25.1% 16% -23.8%
20% -32.4% 11% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$49 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$1,293
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses80 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$369
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage205d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India South Africa 50¢ 52¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 21 $199 +$8 +4%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 21 $50 +$17 +35%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs San Francisco Unicorns Jun 20 $188 −$2 -1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $111 +$13 +12%
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico Jun 20 $23 +$12 +52%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $787 +$35 +4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $63 −$16 -25%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $37 +$16 +42%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $15 +$2 +14%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $218 +$12 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $375 +$22 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $275 −$62 -22%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $88 +$11 +13%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $45 +$10 +22%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 09 $4 +$3 +57%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire Jun 09 $2 +$3 +168%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire Jun 09 $6 +$4 +59%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $141 −$13 -9%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $21 +$1 +6%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Sussex Jun 02 $59 −$17 -29%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $54 −$20 -37%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $62 +$45 +73%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $105 +$22 +21%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $245 +$20 +8%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Middlesex May 30 $130 +$6 +4%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $118 −$35 -29%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $135 +$35 +26%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 28 $50 +$22 +44%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $196 +$3 +2%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $370 +$103 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 24 $8 −$1 -12%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans May 24 $54 −$37 -69%
Solana Up or Down - November 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 24 $49 −$5 -9%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $278 −$56 -20%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $433 −$97 -22%
Will Punjab Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 24 $30 −$16 -52%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $467 +$82 +18%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Yorkshire May 22 $8 +$2 +30%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Glamorgan May 22 $8 −$4 -44%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Hampshire May 22 $8 +$1 +13%
T20 Blast: Gloucestershire vs Warwickshire May 22 $8 +$1 +9%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Worcestershire May 22 $8 −$2 -23%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Sussex May 22 $8 +$1 +10%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Lancashire May 22 $8 −$6 -68%
T20 Blast: Middlesex vs Kent May 22 $8 +$5 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 50¢ $12 31m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 50¢ $6 32m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 50¢ $2 32m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies 100¢ $207 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 96¢ $199 3h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 90¢ $68 6h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 66¢ $50 6h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs San Francisco Unicorns SELL San Francisco Unicorns 100¢ $182 15h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs San Francisco Unicorns BUY San Francisco Unicorns 89¢ $20 16h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs San Francisco Unicorns BUY San Francisco Unicorns 89¢ $142 16h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs San Francisco Unicorns SELL Texas Super Kings 9¢ $4 17h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs San Francisco Unicorns BUY Texas Super Kings 51¢ $26 18h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh SELL Pakistan 0¢ $0 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 80¢ $40 24h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $124 24h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 89¢ $111 31h
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico SELL Los Angeles Knight Riders 93¢ $20 38h
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico BUY Los Angeles Knight Riders 49¢ $11 39h
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico SELL Los Angeles Knight Riders 48¢ $15 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $376 39h
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico BUY Los Angeles Knight Riders 38¢ $12 40h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland SELL New Zealand 99¢ $32 42h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY New Zealand 52¢ $17 42h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland SELL New Zealand 30¢ $14 42h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland SELL New Zealand 28¢ $1 42h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY New Zealand 87¢ $46 45h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 97¢ $31 2d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 62¢ $20 2d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 84¢ $22 2d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 65¢ $17 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.00 · official $21.60 (match) · 566 history records