Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:34:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1ec…729e sports 241 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$5
other 23% −$5
politics 20% −$3
economics 8% −$1
culture 7% −$2
crypto 6% −$1
world 5% $0
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.7%
all 241 -0.5% -10.0% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 229
Open positions0
Markets (closed)241 / 241
History coverage171d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 241 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 06 $30 −$1 -2%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 22 $213 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $78 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 01 $256 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 28 $4 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 28 $60 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 28 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 28 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 28 $44 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 28 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 28 $38 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 28 $182 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 28 $29 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 28 $71 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 28 $43 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 28 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 28 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 28 $31 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 28 $77 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 28 $159 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 27 $73 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 27 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 27 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 27 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 27 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 27 $117 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 27 $172 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 27 $2 $0 -0%
Will Gonzaga win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Feb 27 $36 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 27 $62 $0 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 27 $32 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 27 $163 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 27 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 27 $70 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 27 $37 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 26 $64 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 26 $30 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 26 $39 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 26 $245 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 25 $91 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 25 $252 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 25 $33 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 22 $166 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 22 $35 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 22 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 22 $88 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $41 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $34 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $33 10h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 94¢ $30 14d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 96¢ $30 14d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $29 28d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $30 28d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 90¢ $28 35d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 90¢ $28 35d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $34 110d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $4 111d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $4 111d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $1 111d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $1 111d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 96¢ $4 112d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 96¢ $4 112d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $3 112d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $3 112d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $2 112d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $2 112d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $34 112d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $12 112d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $19 112d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $12 112d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 98¢ $18 112d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 98¢ $38 112d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $38 112d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $38 112d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $28 112d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $28 112d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $34 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1000 history records